Is the Market Turning? JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 Fix-and-Flip Survey Insights
The JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 survey reveals a Fix-and-Flip Market Index (FFMI) score of 62, signaling market expansion. With 71% of real estate investors (REIs) planning to buy more homes in 2026, the latest data points to potentially renewed optimism and growth opportunities for real estate investors.
Quick Summary: Key Takeaways from the 4Q25 Survey
- Market Expansion: The Fix-and-Flip Market Index (FFMI) reached 62, signaling a healthy and expanding market environment.
- Buying Spree: A historic 71% of flippers expect to purchase more homes in 2026 than they did in the previous year.
- Inventory Hotspots: Texas and Florida are seeing loosened inventory, with over 23% of flippers reporting less competition for deals.
- Price Sweet Spot: Affordability wins, with 73% of flipped homes selling for under $500,000.
- Easier Financing: 30% of investors report that accessing capital is easier now compared to Q3 2025.
The Q4 2025 fix-and-flip market index from John Burns Research and Consulting and Kiavi showing market activity.
The real estate market rarely stands still. For investors focused on fix-and-flip projects, staying ahead means understanding not just where the market is today, but where the data suggests it could be heading.
The latest JBREC + Kiavi Fix-and-Flip Survey for the fourth quarter of 2025 offers a clear signal: the headwinds of previous quarters are shifting, and the market could be in expansion mode.
Whether you are scouting your next property or preparing to list a completed renovation, these macro trends directly impact your portfolio strategy. In this post, we’ll break down the latest data from John Burns Research and Consulting, exploring why sales expectations are rising, where the inventory is hiding, and how financing conditions are easing for investors ready to scale.
The Index Climbs: Signs of a Healthy Market
The headline news from the fourth quarter is the score. The Fix-and-Flip Market Index (FFMI) rose to 62 in Q4 2025. This is a significant jump from the previous quarter's score of 56.
To understand why this could matter, you have to look at how the index works. Any score over 50 indicates expansion. A score of 62 suggests that the market is not just surviving; it is growing. Conditions for buying, renovating, and selling homes are generally more favorable now than they have been in recent history.
A Shift in Sentiment
Perhaps the most telling data point regarding potential investor confidence is the outlook for the year ahead. According to the survey, 71% of flippers expect to purchase more homes in 2026 than they did in 2025.
This is the highest share recorded in the survey's history. It indicates that experienced investors are not sitting on the sidelines waiting for "perfect" conditions. Instead, they are actively positioning themselves to capture market share, likely driven by stabilizing interest rates and consistent demand from homebuyers.
The "Why" Behind the Optimism
Several factors may be fueling this renewed optimism:
- Stabilizing Rates: As financing costs become more predictable, underwriting deals becomes less risky.
- Strong Demand: The appetite for move-in ready homes remains high, particularly among first-time buyers who may not have the cash or expertise to handle renovations themselves.
- Price Clarity: After periods of volatility, price discovery is becoming easier, allowing investors to estimate After-Repair Value (ARV) with greater confidence.
Finding the Deals: Inventory and Competition
A healthy market often brings increased competition, and the Q4 2025 data reflects this reality. The "Availability of Pre-Flip Homes" index sits at 61.
It is important to understand how this specific index works: a higher score here indicates more competition for deals. While this could signal a robust market with many active participants, it also may mean finding the right property could require a sharper strategy. However, real estate is hyper-local, and the national average may hide significant regional opportunities.
Regional Inventory Breakdown
Where are REIs finding the most breathing room? The survey data highlights distinct differences across the country:
- Texas & Florida: These markets are currently offering the most opportunity for deal sourcing. Over 23% of flippers in these regions report less competition for deals. This may be largely driven by rising general housing inventory levels in these states, giving investors more options to choose from without getting into bidding wars.
- Midwest: This region remains a steady performer with typical competition levels. The Midwest continues to offer consistency for investors looking for lower entry prices and reliable, if not explosive, returns.
- Northeast & Northwest: These areas are experiencing tighter inventory conditions. Investors here are reporting higher competition for deals, likely due to a structural lack of housing supply and high demand for finished products.
Strategic Takeaway
If you invest in Texas or Florida, you might have more leverage to negotiate purchase prices today than you did a year ago. In contrast, if you are operating in the Northeast or Northwest, speed and certainty of closing could be your competitive advantages. Having your financing lined up before you make an offer could be the deciding factor in winning a deal in these tighter markets.
Sales Activity: Who is Buying and for How Much?
Optimism is great, but sales are what pay the bills. Fortunately, the survey data shows that sales expectations are aligning with buying intentions.
Strong Sales Expectations
Expectations for future sales activity are at their highest level since the first quarter of 2022. The JBREC + Kiavi Fix-and-Flip survey reveals that 42% of flippers expect "Good" sales in the next six months. This suggests that investors are seeing strong traffic at open houses and receiving offers that meet their underwriting criteria.
The Price Sweet Spot
Understanding where the volume lies could be critical for your exit strategy. The Q4 2025 data is relatively clear: affordability is king.
73% of flipped homes sold for under $500,000.
This price point is the "sweet spot" of the current market. Renovating homes that fall into the jumbo loan category or ultra-luxury tier could carry higher risk and a smaller buyer pool. Conversely, homes priced near the median are typically moving quickly.
Buyer Demographics
Who is buying these homes?
- Entry-Level Buyers: This group accounted for 50% of flipped home sales in Q4 2025. This is the highest level since Q3 2024.
- The Implications: First-time homebuyers are often using FHA or conventional financing with low down payments. They need homes that pass inspection and are truly move-in ready. They rarely have the budget for immediate repairs, making the quality of your renovation a key selling point.
Regional Price Reality
While the current national sweet spot is under $500k, local variances are massive. Here is a snapshot of average flipped home prices by region:
- Northwest: ~$968K (Highest average price)
- National Average: ~$454K
- Southeast: ~$333K (Most affordable average price)
If you are flipping in the Northwest, you are likely targeting a move-up buyer or a high-income professional. In the Southeast, your target is primarily the first-time buyer or the downsizer. Aligning your finishes and budget with these local expectations could be vital for maximizing ROI.
The Cost of Doing Business: Renovations and Margins
Renovating an investment property is rarely cheap, but costs appear to be stabilizing. The average renovation cost in Q4 2025 was roughly $75,000. While this is lower than the peak costs we have seen in previous years, it remains a little high by historical standards.
According to the data, most flippers—about 61%—spent between $31,000 and $90,000 on their projects. Keeping your renovation budget under control is key to protecting your profit margins.
Labor Dynamics: The Power Balance
The "Question of the Quarter" focused on bargaining power between investors and contractors. The survey results show a split market:
- Contractor Power: In the Northeast and Southern California, contractors typically hold more bargaining power. Labor shortages in these regions mean tradespeople could be selective, keeping labor costs high and timelines strict.
- REI Power: In areas like Texas and Florida, the dynamic is more balanced or may even favor the investor. The availability of labor in these regions could allow investors to negotiate better rates and timelines.
ARV Strategy
How much are REIs willing to pay to secure a deal? Nationally, according to the survey, flippers are willing to pay an average of 66% of After-Repair Value (ARV).
However, this varies by region. The maximum ARV flippers are willing to pay fell year-over-year in 4 out of 9 regions. This suggests that while optimism is high, real estate investors are remaining disciplined. They are not chasing appreciation; they are buying right to ensure a buffer against potential market shifts.
Financing Your Next Move
Perhaps the best news for investors from this quarter's survey, is that capital is becoming more accessible.
According to the JBREC + Kiavi Fix-and-Flip Survey, 30% of flippers reported that it was easier to access capital compared to the previous quarter. As liquidity returns to the market, lenders are competing for business, which could result in better terms for borrowers.
The Role of Leverage
Leverage remains a primary tool for scaling a real estate business. 51% of investors secured new loans in 4Q25. Using leverage helps you to preserve your cash liquidity, diversify across multiple projects, and potentially increase your cash-on-cash return.
How Kiavi Can Support You
Speed is often the differentiator between winning a deal and missing out. Finding the right financing partner could make the difference.
By using AI-powered technology to streamline the underwriting process, Kiavi helps investors close deals faster. This efficiency allows you to focus on managing your renovations and contractors rather than chasing down paperwork for your loan payments.
Capitalize on the Expansion
The data from the JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 survey paints a picture of a market that has potentially found its footing and is moving forward.
- The Market is Expanding: An FFMI of 62 signals health and growth.
- Entry-Level is King: According to the survey, the strongest demand is for homes under $500k suitable for first-time buyers.
- Capital is Flowing: Financing is becoming more accessible, fueling purchasing plans for 2026.
However, real estate investing is not a passive activity. It requires analyzing your local data points—like the inventory looseness in Florida or the labor constraints in the Northeast—to make informed decisions.
Now may be the time to revisit your acquisition strategy. Are you looking in the right neighborhoods? Is your renovation budget aligned with the $75k average? Are you leveraged correctly to take advantage of buying opportunities?
If you are ready to take advantage of these market conditions, check your rates with Kiavi today to see how our financing solutions may support your next project.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What does an FFMI score of 62 mean for investors?
The John Burns Research & Accounting FFMI (Fix-and-Flip Market Index) score of 62 indicates that the fix-and-flip market is in a state of expansion. Any score above 50 suggests growth, meaning conditions for buying, renovating, and selling homes are generally favorable compared to historical seasonal norms. This specific score reflects a significant improvement in sentiment and sales expectations from previous quarters.
2. What is the best price range for flipping homes right now?
According to the JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 Fix-and-Flip Survey, the "sweet spot" for flipped homes is under $500,000. In fact, 73% of all flipped homes sold within this price range. This segment may be driven largely by strong demand from entry-level homebuyers seeking affordability, making it a lower-risk target for real estate investors compared to the luxury market.
3. Are renovation costs going up or down?
The average renovation cost for a flipped home according to the JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 Fix-and-Flip Survey, was $75,000. While this is a decrease from previous inflation-driven highs, costs remain marginally elevated. It is important to note that this is a national average; investors in high-cost regions like the West Coast may consider budgeting for significantly higher renovation expenses, while those in the Midwest could see lower costs.
4. Which regions offer the most inventory for fix-and-flip investors?
Texas and Florida currently show the highest availability of inventory relative to demand. According to the JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 Fix-and-Flip Survey, data indicates that over 23% of flippers in these regions report less competition for deals compared to seasonal norms. This could largely be due to a general rise in housing inventory in these states, providing more options for acquisitions.
5. Is it getting easier to find financing for flip projects?
Yes, the data suggests capital conditions are improving. In the JBREC + Kiavi Q4 2025 Fix-and-Flip Survey, 30% of flippers reported that it was easier to access capital than in the previous quarter. With 51% of investors securing new loans, leverage continues to be a vital tool. Partnering with a tech-enabled lender like Kiavi could help you secure financing more efficiently to keep up with the market's pace.
Source: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC, independent survey of fix-and-flipped homes, NSA (Data: 4Q25, Pub: Feb-26).