What Moved the Market in June: Fed Decision, Foreclosure Deal Flow, and a Big Kiavi Announcement

Welcome to the June 2026 Investor Pulse. Every month, we round up the market data, financing signals, and product updates that could matter most to your next deal. Here is what moved the needle this month.

The Fed Held Rates in June. Here Is What the Updated Projections May Mean for Borrowing Costs.

The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% on June 17, 2026. Updated projections suggest rates may move modestly higher before year-end.

The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.50-3.75% at its June 16-17 meeting, the fourth consecutive hold, per the FOMC statement released June 17. The hold itself was widely anticipated. What moved markets was the updated Summary of Economic Projections, where the 2026 median rate projection shifted upward to 3.8%, suggesting policymakers forecast at least one hike before December, according to CNBC's coverage of the meeting.

The June meeting also marked the first presided over by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The committee's statement was notably shorter than recent predecessors and removed prior language indicating a bias toward future cuts, per Fox Business. Warsh indicated he would form task forces to overhaul major Fed operations. The committee also raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% from 2.7%, which officials attributed in part to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and its potential effects on energy prices.

Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, June 2026

For real estate investors using bridge financing or considering a DSCR refinance, the updated projections may matter as much as the hold itself. Markets are now pricing in a potential 25-basis-point adjustment as early as October, according to CME FedWatch data cited by CNBC. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.47% as of June 18, roughly 34 basis points below the same week one year earlier, per Freddie Mac PMMS. That year-over-year improvement may continue to support buyer demand for flipped homes heading into summer, even as rates move within a narrower range.

What this may mean for your deals:

• Rates are still meaningfully lower than a year ago, which could support buyer demand heading into summer
• A modest rate adjustment later in 2026 is possible, so locking in financing sooner could give deals more certainty
• The next FOMC meeting is scheduled July 28-29, and incoming inflation data between now and then could shift expectations in either direction

Kiavi Tip: Rate volatility tends to reward real estate investors who lock in financing before economic data shifts the picture. Pricing out your next bridge loan at kiavi.com/loans/bridge-loans before the next FOMC meeting (July 28-29) could give you a cleaner read on your deal numbers.

Foreclosure Activity Is Building. Here Is Where Distressed Deal Flow May Be Strongest.

40,355 properties had a foreclosure filing in May 2026, up 14-percent year-over-year. Starts and REOs are both trending higher annually, per ATTOM.

Foreclosure activity eased month-over-month from April but continued its gradual annual climb, per ATTOM's May 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. Foreclosure starts reached 27,304, and completed foreclosures (REOs) came in at 4,092. For real estate investors focused on distressed acquisition strategies, the year-over-year growth in starts may signal expanding pre-foreclosure inventory heading into summer.

Source: ATTOM May 2026 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report

State-level data could help real estate investors narrow in on the markets with the most active distressed inventory. The five states with the highest foreclosure filing rates in May, per ATTOM:

• Florida: 1 in every 2,110 housing units
• South Carolina: 1 in every 2,287
• Maryland: 1 in every 2,369
• Nevada: 1 in every 2,386
• Indiana: 1 in every 2,516

Among major metros, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tampa, Riverside, and Orlando posted the highest rates among cities with populations of 2 million or more. Texas, Florida, and California led in raw foreclosure start volume nationally.

ATTOM CEO Rob Barber noted that volumes remain below historical peaks and may reflect gradual normalization in the market rather than a broader shift in housing fundamentals. For real estate investors, that context may matter: the uptick in activity could point to more sourcing opportunities over the coming quarters without signaling systemic distress.

Home Prices and Sales Volume Both Rose in May. Regional Markets Are Diverging.

The median U.S. home sale price reached $398,771 in May 2026, up 2.0-percent year-over-year. Homes sold may have risen 5.2-percent annually, per Redfin.

National housing market data from Redfin points to prices and closed sales both improving in May. The median sale price rose 2.0-percent year-over-year to $398,771, and the number of homes sold climbed 5.2-percent annually to 308,446. The typical sale price was up 2.3-percent year-over-year as of late May, and sale-to-list ratios held at 98.3-percent nationally, per Redfin's weekly update.

Pending home sales ticked down slightly week-over-week in late May as mortgage rates moved toward 6.53%, though the overall level remained near its highest since late 2022. Mortgage-purchase applications pulled back modestly as well. Days on market averaged 49, up 3 days year-over-year.

Source: Redfin Housing Market Data, May 2026

Regional performance continued to diverge. The Bay Area showed strong signs of recovery, with San Francisco median prices up 16.1-percent year-over-year for the three months ending May 2026, per Redfin's San Francisco data. California as a state saw home prices up 2.3-percent and sales volume up 8.0-percent. Chicago's median sale price rose 5.4-percent year-over-year to $379,900, with buyers outnumbering sellers in the metro, per Redfin's Chicago update.

Regional exit condition signals heading into summer:

• Midwest (Chicago, Cleveland, Milwaukee): Buyer activity tends to be relatively strong, prices have been rising in many markets, and seller competition may be more limited than in supply-heavy regions
• Northern California (SF Bay Area, Sacramento): Price appreciation trends have been favorable, and supply tends to remain constrained in these markets
• Sun Belt (Texas, Florida): More inventory may be available in many submarkets, which could support buyer negotiating leverage and potentially more favorable entry pricing
• National: Sellers may outnumber buyers by around 47-percent nationally, per Redfin, suggesting market selection could carry more weight than macro timing right now

Kiavi Tip: For flippers, supply-constrained Midwest and coastal markets may offer the most consistent exit conditions heading into summer. In Sun Belt markets with more available inventory, patient buyers could find more room to negotiate on price.

Apartment Occupancy Hit a Five-Month High. Midwest Markets Are Leading on Rent Growth.

U.S. apartment occupancy reached 95.5% in May, up 30 basis points for the month and 90 basis points since year-end 2025.

The national apartment market continued its recovery in May, per RealPage Market Analytics. Occupancy climbed to 95.5-percent, its fifth consecutive monthly gain, and effective asking rents increased for the fifth straight month, up 0.6-percent in May. All four U.S. regions saw rents climb in May, with the West returning to positive annual growth territory.

The regional picture for rental investors may be the clearest in the Midwest and coastal markets, where occupancy and rent trends appear to remain constructive.

Source: RealPage Market Analytics, May 2026 Data Update

Midwest markets posted some of the stronger rent gains nationally, per RealPage. Milwaukee recorded 3.5-percent annual rent growth, Chicago 3.1-percent, and St. Louis, Minneapolis, Detroit, and Kansas City each posted gains near 2-percent annually.

In Sun Belt markets, elevated supply from the 2022-2025 construction cycle continues to work its way through.

Annual rent trends in June by market:

• San Antonio: -6.0%
• Denver: -5.6%
• Austin: -4.9%
• Phoenix: -4.1%
• Charlotte: -3.4%

For real estate investors evaluating Sun Belt rental holds, the supply picture may also represent an entry opportunity as construction starts appear to have slowed. RealPage projects new multifamily deliveries could fall to roughly 300,000 units nationally next year, well below the level needed to satisfy long-term demand. Markets working through current supply may be positioning for tighter conditions in 2027 and beyond.

For real estate investors tracking the rental pivot trend identified in the Q1 2026 JBREC survey (where 47-percent of flippers planned more rental holds), the data suggests Midwest and coastal markets may offer the most immediate rental return support, while Sun Belt markets could offer longer-term upside as supply normalizes.

One note on data scope: RealPage figures cover multifamily apartments primarily. Single-family rental dynamics at the zip code level may vary, and local data tends to give a more precise picture of SFR conditions in any specific submarket.

Kiavi Tip: If the hold-versus-sell math is on your mind, the DSCR loan BRRRR refinance guide walks through how the refinance step could work in the current rate environment and what to underwrite before committing to a hold.

Figure Technology Solutions Enters Agreement to Acquire Kiavi in a $717 Million Transaction

In the biggest company news in Kiavi's history, Figure Technology Solutions (Nasdaq: FIGR) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Kiavi in a $717 million transaction on June 10, 2026. The deal is structured in two parts: Figure will acquire Kiavi's technology and operating platform, while a joint venture between Figure and global investment firm Sixth Street will purchase Kiavi's balance-sheet assets.

Arvind Mohan, CEO of Kiavi, described the transaction this way:

"For the past thirteen years, Kiavi has been focused on powering our data flywheel and proving what's possible when technology and industry expertise converge. This transaction represents a massive leap forward for the asset class. With Kiavi's industry-leading platform powered by Figure's innovative blockchain marketplace, we have the opportunity to deliver an entirely new and unmatched standard of reach, reliability, and execution."

For additional context on the transaction and what it may mean for the broader capital markets, the full press release is available at kiavi.com/press/figure-acquires-kiavi.

In the News

Charles Goodwin, VP and Head of Bridge and DSCR Lending, joined the Flip Talk Podcast with Don Costa to walk through private lending strategy for active investors. The episode covers how to approach hard money financing across flips, rentals, and new builds, and what to know when qualifying for a bridge or DSCR loan.

Rebecca Simanek, VP and Head of Marketing, was featured in IMN's Summer 2026 roundup following her appearance at IMN SFR East in Miami, where she spoke on the Elevating Women's Leadership in This New Flexible Technology Era panel alongside industry executives from across the single-family rental space.

On the blog, June covered a range of topics relevant to real estate investors at every stage.

• The mid-year fix-and-flip market check looks at where real estate investors may be finding the most traction heading into the second half of 2026, with a focus on the markets and strategies that tend to be holding up well.
• The fix-and-flip draw process guide breaks down how construction draws typically work on a bridge loan, useful context for anyone managing a renovation timeline right now.
• The rate lock effect post covers what the gradual fading of the mortgage rate lock-in effect could mean for rental investors in 2026, including what it may mean for inventory and rental demand in key markets.

Final Thoughts

June was a month where the national headlines and the on-the-ground reality may have pulled in different directions. The Fed held rates, but the signal underneath may have shifted. Home prices and sales volume appeared to improve, but the experience could vary depending on where you are buying and selling. Foreclosure starts are trending upward, which could mean more sourcing opportunities may show up in the back half of the year for real estate investors who are positioned to move on them.

The through-line across all of it is that market selection may be doing more work right now than macro timing. A deal in Chicago or the Bay Area tends to sit in a very different environment than one in Tampa or Austin. If you are underwriting something right now, the local occupancy data, days-on-market trend, and foreclosure pipeline in your specific submarket may give you a more useful read than the national average. Pricing out a bridge loan with Kiavi is a good place to start getting those numbers in front of you.

Disclosures

This post reflects market data and Kiavi company information available as of June 30, 2026, and is subject to change. Product features and availability may vary.

Loans are for real estate investment purposes only and are not for personal, family, or household use. All loans are subject to Kiavi's standard underwriting, credit approval, and property valuation. Not all applicants will qualify. Final loan terms are contingent on several qualification factors, including credit history, income, investment experience, and the selected loan term.

This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice. While Kiavi strives for accuracy, market data is subject to change without notice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Loans are made or arranged pursuant to a California Financing Law license. For full state licensing and additional state-specific disclosures, please visit kiavi.com/legal/disclosures.